The Japanese suffered a heavy defeat at midway, but despite this they still had a number of carriers that could still be used in the Pacific war. Although they never could replace the four carriers they lost at Midway, they could still use the carriers that weren’t present at the battle of Midway. If the Japanese had wished to turn the tide of the war back into their favor then it would only be possible if they were successful during the Guadalcanal campaign, which was fought in 1943.
The Guadalcanal campaign was an allied invasion of Guadalcanal and the Solomon islands to take a Japanese airbase in the region. Luckily the base was still under construction and was lightly guarded. The Japanese wanted the base back as it would isolate Australia from supporting the American forces. This resulted in a stalemate that would last for months and would eventually result in a U.S victory of the Japanese forces.
During the campaign, the battle of the Santa Cruz Islands was a carrier battle fought between 2 American carriers and 3 Japanese carriers. The battle was a Japanese victory that came at a heavy cost. The Americans lost the carrier USS Hornet and were left with only one operational carrier in the Pacific. The Japanese however had lost 99 aircraft along with 148 pilots. The losses were made up of 49% of their torpedo pilots, 39% of their dive-bomber pilots and 20% of their fighter pilots. By this stage in the war the Japanese had lost 409 of the 765 veteran pilots that participated at Pearl Harbour. The two Japanese carriers that were damaged in the battle were forced to retreat for repairs.
Had the Japanese won this battle with fewer losses, the Japan might’ve still had a chance in winning the Pacific war. The losses of airmen in the battles leading up to this point crippled the Japanese ability to provide good pilots to the front lines. The loss of the carriers that had to go back for repairs hampered the Japanese efforts to provide air cover for troops in their attack on the airfield at Guadalcanal as well as the crucial troops and supplies that were heading to Guadalcanal. Had the Japanese won this battle, the Americans would’ve lost all operational carriers in the Pacific and they would’ve also lost a considerable amount of air support for their own troops as well as for spotting and sinking Japanese supplies.
If the Japanese had won at Guadalcanal, the Japanese would once again have the advantage for the next 6 months as the Americans continued to build the new Essex class aircraft carriers. After this America’s production capabilities would once again overwhelm the Japanese forces. Overall following the battle of Midway, Japan could’ve won the battle of Santa Cruz and overall, the Guadalcanal campaign, but unless the war was quickly finished, America might be able to rebuild their Pacific carrier fleet and push the Japanese back once again.